Kenya currently ranks fourth in Group F of the 2026 World Cup Qualifiers, putting their chances of advancing in the tournament, which will be held in the United States, Mexico, and Jamaica, in jeopardy.
The African Zone (CAF) qualifiers for the 26th FIFA World Cup began on November 13, 2023, and will conclude in November 2025. Nine African teams are guaranteed to compete in the World Cup, while an additional team will enter the FIFA Play-off Tournament.
The African qualifiers are being played in two rounds. The first round, which is currently underway, consists of a group stage featuring nine groups of six teams each. Each team plays two matches (home and away) against each opponent. The top finisher in each group will automatically qualify for the World Cup.
In the second round, the four best runners-up will face off in two one-off semi-finals, followed by a final. The winner of this round will participate in the FIFA Play-off Tournament.
Leading Group F are the defending champions of the Africa Cup of Nations, Ivory Coast, with 16 points. Gabon follows in second place with 15 points, while Burundi sits third with 7 points, just one point ahead of Kenya. The Gambia is fifth with 4 points, and Seychelles is last in the group with no points.
Kenya has four matches remaining. If they secure the maximum 12 points from these games, they could accumulate a total of 18 points. However, given the current standings of the top two teams, it is likely they will exceed the 18-point mark, leaving Kenya’s hopes of qualification mathematically uncertain.
Harambee Stars will host The Gambia at Nyayo Stadium on September 1, 2025. In their previous meeting, the match ended in a 3-3 draw. Following that, Kenya will host Seychelles at the same venue on September 8, a team they defeated 5-0 in the first leg.
Next, they will travel to face Burundi on October 6, a team they previously drew 1-1 with. Kenya will conclude their group stage matches against African champions Ivory Coast on October 13. The reverse fixture ended in a goalless draw.
Based on recent form and past results, Kenya has a high probability of winning against The Gambia and Seychelles at home. They also have a good chance of defeating Burundi away, but beating Ivory Coast in their home ground will be a significant challenge.
